exchanges of spies, an Iranian scientist refuge in Pakistan in Washington to read the newspapers in recent days seemed to be back in the days of the Cold War, in a script worthy of the best-selling David Forsyth or Tom Clancy. For a closer look from these episodes wind complex issues that represent some of the biggest challenges the international community faces. Take the case of Shahram Amiri, nuclear scientist at the University of Malek Ashtar, near the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and mysteriously disappeared during a pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia in June 2009. The United States has always denied its existence, until the Iranian government has not produced a videotape which, in their view, the evidence of his disappearance. An episode that, together with the latest revelations of Amiri now back at home, could exacerbate the already delicate relations between the U.S. and Iran. Only weeks ago, which were approved a series of new sanctions designed to bring the negotiations the Ahmadinejad government, which in turn continues to flex its muscles, and to reaffirm its determination to continue with the uranium enrichment program. The Security Council had adopted a resolution in June, followed by the Obama that the sanctions could be extended to those non-US companies that have relations with Iran, particularly in the oil and gas. This approach has followed the European Union, which extended the sanctions on technologies "dual use" , meaning those that can be used for civilian and military. As usual from various considerations have followed or less effectiveness of the sanctions regime, and the need to accompany him to a diplomatic effort to bring Iran to the negotiating table, if not sull'ineluttabilità the military. Iran in turn has announced plans to reopen negotiations with the European Union a letter in early July. If so there is no reason to be optimistic. The sanctions regime ricondurrebbero to deal on civil nuclear program and the risks of military escalation in the area would be foiled. Instead, the conjunction of various circumstances now make the matter very complicated. On the one hand the head of the Russian government Medvedev criticized the sanctions adopted unanimously by the Security Council and warns about the possibility that Iran may soon build the bomb. Across the unprecedented statement by Foreign Minister of the UAE, which for the first time publicly supported the need for the military, if diplomacy fails to take its course. That this statement comes from a senior representative of a Gulf country is significant, given that the intention of the government in Tehran, the Persian Gulf is the area of \u200b\u200bgreatest relevance on which to assert their political and military hegemony. area, it is worth remembering - in which even France now operates actively to export - especially in the UAE - civilian nuclear technology. The ritual of rattling sabers and shields that is repeated cyclically whenever the discussion of how to prevent military escalation of Iran, has run so far always with the cold calculations of those in the Obama administration is aware of the effects of a possible military strike, Israeli or American hands, in Lebanon as in Gaza, in Iraq and Afghanistan. A ripple effect unmanageable for a country, the United States, already "overstretched" , which is committed to the bone in two endless wars in the region. But there is an element that could make a difference this time. As you know the foreign policy of a country is always closely connected with the inner one. We often embarks on adventures outside the border to overshadow the problems in domestic politics. Often instead adventurism abroad and further weaken the impact of the government held inside. This is the case of Obama, who is close to the election "mid-term" autumn with the risk of losing their majority in Congress, and become what is called in the jargon "lame-duck" lame duck. And then the foreign policy, as well as health care reform will become the litmus paper of the soundness of the administration and will be used as a club by the Republicans, and those conservative forces that are contiguous to blood clots in the galaxy "Tea Party" . The Iran dossier as a whole that is tied hand in glove with the fates of other countries and areas in conflict, Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan. In the latter, the much-publicized offensive against the final stronghold of Kandahar has been postponed to a date to be determined, and the difficulties in which to pay the ISAF troops is evident. Iraq not speak: the last visit of Vice President Joe Biden was an opportunity to see the obvious failure of the building at the table of democracy. On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Obama's position for a peaceful solution and to support option two peoples-Two states, as well as the strong approach to the Palestinian Authority, are obvious, and is clear that a political solution to the Israeli Palestinian-could also have a positive impact on the Iranian issue. And Europe? In addition to the sanctions approved, Europe could try to play a role Political and diplomatic mediator together with the Arab states? The revival of the option negotiation could sparigliare cards, and open a channel that averts the possibility of military intervention more risky. A card to play there, and the recent declaration by the Security Council, the same time as the review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation, which claims a process for creating a zone free of nuclear weapons throughout the Middle East. This result, however, that Israel commit itself to dismantle its arsenal. Egypt who chairs the group of non-alignment has already circulated a proposal to convene a conference next year to build a zone free of "weapons of mass destruction (including chemical weapons) also calling on Israel in the Middle East, and Europe should support that process. addition to diplomacy, and mediation, Iran needs to be addressed also, and above all understanding the reasons and outlook.
In his "The Enemy We Know" (The enemy we know) the ex-CIA agent Robert Baer says that the United States have never been able to understand Iran, and maintain a vision that is reminiscent of Ayatollahs and Islamic fundamentalism. Baer instead should go further: "What is in Iran beyond Islam, is a profound challenge to colonialism, an ancient form of nationalism. Going even deeper soul of Iran there is a rediscovered taste for empire. But Iran is not the new Rome, intent on pure conquest, the spread of its culture, settlements and religious conversion. ... What you need to understand now is that Iran strongly believes in its own right to the empire. " It 'clear that the standoff on Tehran Nuclear power is primarily a move designed to reaffirm its well established role of regional power rather than the intention to acquire the bomb. Instead of suggesting that there is no military solution, then it will be necessary and appropriate to insist on the peaceful path of negotiations, taking the opportunity to relaunch a political initiative for the Middle East, its denuclearization until the final solution of conflicts that for years now afflicting its people.
0 comments:
Post a Comment